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Making Money On The Stock Market
Though people think there's something quite new about the Stock Market, the organisation was actually formed over three hundred years ago when merchants began forming 'joint stock' companies to promote their common aims. But only very recently did the man in the street develop more than a passing interest in the Stock Market. Today, massive fortunes lie in wait for anyone who is astute and interested enough to tackle the Stock Market to win.
Ownership of stocks and shares has increased dramatically in recent years mainly due to the government's privatisation policies and incentives given to ordinary members of the public to enter the previously mysterious world of share ownership. Many people who invested in privatisation issues subsequently developed a healthy interest in stocks and shares, and some are now doing remarkably well by trading on the Stock Market themselves or having their portfolio of investments managed for them by one of a growing bank of investment advisors.
Sadly, most people fail to realise that shares can just as quickly plummet in value as they can rise, and often for the most innocuous of reasons. Vast reductions in share prices can occur with alarming speed and disastrous consequences as many nouveau shareholders realised to their detriment on October 19th, 1987, the notorious 'Black Monday'.
Few would have predicted how, in so short a time, literally billions could be knocked off share values in one of the worst bear market crashes of recent times. So it is essential that potential investors in stocks and shares understand that fortunes - and huge losses - can be made on the Stock Market. That said, it follows that no-one should invest their entire savings, nest-egg or rainy day money on the Stock Market. Only after household bills and other essentials have been allocated should money be considered safe for speculation.
A golden rule of investing is that, in general, the higher the potential reward from an investment, the higher the threatened risk to your capital. Conversely, to have absolute security for your investment, you must look for a comparatively low return, such as from a bank or building society, some gilts, ISAs, and so on, where rewards are guaranteed, albeit they are far less exciting than for investors in the Stock Market. To illustrate this rule of risk being generally commensurate with expected returns, let's look briefly at a handful of common types of investment and the potential risks involved:
Capital Safe/Interest Fixed - Bank fixed rate deposit accounts, building society fixed rate accounts, gilts, income and growth bonds, local authority loans, National Savings Plans.
Capital Safe/Interest Variable - Banks and building society deposit accounts, National Savings Investment accounts, income and deposit bond accounts.
Capital Safe/Investment Inflation-linked - Index-linked investments including some National Savings plans.
Capital at Risk/High Capital Growth - Business expansion schemes, some gilts, unit and investment trusts, personal equity plans, stocks and shares.
It is this latter group from which great fortunes grow and the one we are concerned with now. But we've promised to show you how to increase your wealth, not deplete it, so why has this section been included? There are ways to gamble on the Stock Market to win, primarily by developing sound investment strategies and by designing a portfolio of speculative investments.
Don't Risk All Your Eggs to One Basket! is the maxim to go by here.
The Name of the Game Is Speculation .....
..... a risk, a gamble, taking a chance. In the mid-1980s the game was easier to play, with huge and sometimes instant profits being almost guaranteed to investors buying into the government's sale of massive chunks of the country's assets at way below their actual worth. Then came Black Monday and the ill-fated BP sell-off which all but spelt the kiss of death to the chance of more ordinary people becoming first-time investors.
Black Monday followed a particularly long period of rapidly rising share values, with many investors discovering their portfolio rocketing in value one day, and plummeting to an all-time low just a few days later.
Such rapid and dramatic growth in share values gave investors a false sense of security which was quick to vanish. Today, many would-be speculators shun from risking their cash on the Stock Market for fear of another Black Monday wiping out whatever profits they make.
Does this mean we should stick with high street bank accounts and risking a few pound each week on the National Lottery? Well yes, it does. And no! Depending on your point of view.
The wise investor turns to both safe and more risky havens to place his cash while learning all he can about the Stock Market, the rewards, the risks, the spills, the thrills. Yes, there is risk involved, but a carefully planned portfolio of investments should minimise risks and maximise potential gains. Roundabouts and swings, so to speak!
Introduction to the Stock Market and the Stock Exchange
The Stock Exchange is an organised market for the purchase and sale of securities. It comprises groups of people operating a market place for shares of many British companies, and some overseas firms. Nothing more complicated, sinister or mysterious!
As in any market place, products, in this case shares, are offered for purchase and return (sale) by the customer.
There are lots of reasons for investing on the Stock Market, not least of all to have a jolly good gamble and maybe make a quick profit. Most people invest purely for monetary gain, either gaining income or capital from shares. Others invest for perks available to investors, such as low-priced goods from the company issuing the shares, cost reductions on items from other companies, and so on.
Purchasing a share makes you a shareholder in the company, with subsequent share purchases increasing your particular stake or share of ownership. Every stake, however small, gives you a share in that company's profits.
In theory then, if you have chosen a company that is consistently profitable, you should earn regular dividends as well as watching the value of your investment grow in the company.
Conversely, a company that starts to decline or declares poor or reduced profits will show your investment reducing in value. Your shares might also become worthless if the company fails completely.
Stocks, though erroneously viewed as identical to shares, are somewhat different. The term 'stocks and shares' refers to two different commodities, not one.
Stocks normally offer a fixed rate of interest with prices traditionally depending on the general level of interest rates.
Spotting a Winner - Strange and Even Stranger
Most people use judgement, knowledge and analysis of selected shares to decide whether their prices will rise or fall. But there are many very odd methods others use, with sometimes alarming efficiency:
American guru W. D. Gann believed share fluctuations could be predicted using complicated number and percentage sequences related to architectural ratios - and the breeding patterns of rabbits!
Fred Stafford, chairman of Cheshire-based Investment Data Services recently told the 'Express: "Gann was a genius." Stafford himself sells computerised share price and training services, including a Private Investor's Package, with a minimum yearly subscription of £3,818.
The Hy-Five system selects companies with the 10 highest dividend levels in the FT-30 Index. "You buy the five with the lowest share prices," says Alastair Altham of Johnson Fry, "hold for a year, then start again."
The 'history repeats itself' theory suggests that charts from the past can be used to forecast the future, though sadly no-one can agree how to draw and interpret the patterns.
The Random Walk Method - in 1968 bored reporters at the 'Wall Street Journal' started throwing darts at their share price page. They bought the shares that were spiked. Silly? Maybe so, but left untouched their portfolio of shares would have outperformed 95% of the highly-paid professional attempts over the ensuing 28 years."
Other Features of the Stock Exchange
The Stock Exchange is involved to a lesser or greater degree with other forms of investment, including:
Government Securities - also known as 'gilt-edged securities' or 'government bonds'. These are forms of borrowing by the government and most are entirely risk-free.
Convertible Stocks - also called 'equities' and falling mid-way between ordinary shares and straightforward bonds. The term 'convertible' indicates that during the holding period the owner may convert his holding into ordinary shares.
Commodities - this is where the holder speculates on movements in price, where huge fortunes can be made by clever analysts. And massive losses suffered by not so lucky investors! A commodity is a raw material usually traded on the 'futures' market. Examples are sugar, silver, potatoes and fruit.
Don't ever make this your first speculative entry to the Stock Market and only consider commodities when you have experience of other forms of investment first.
Warrants and Traded Options - an indirect way of gambling on rise and fall in the value of shares. No income is derived from this form of speculation and, like commodities, they can prove highly dangerous for the novice investor.
Investment Trusts and Unit Trusts - a form of 'pooled' investment, offering reasonable security to the smaller and inexperienced investor. Investments and unit trusts are recommended to the portfolio investor as well as the more ambitious individual who wants to gamble on riskier investments with some of his money hidden out of harm's way.
Who Owns Shares?
You might already be a shareholder, without your knowledge, if such as your trade union or pension scheme holds shares on members' behalf. Pension funds are among the world's largest investors and larger trade unions such as the Post Office and British Rail are major shareholders in many types of organisation.
What Are the Likely Rewards for Share Owners?
Returns come from:
Income - representing a share of the amount the company decides to pay out to shareholders. Increased profitability of any company normally means more income for shareholders.
Capital Gain - representing a rise in the value of individual shares normally as a result of growth in company prospects and profitability.
Should I Buy Shares in More than One Company?
It's the nature of the world that some companies consistently perform well while others fluctuate between profit and loss situation. Unfortunately, some companies seem on a steady course to decline and these are the ones you must avoid. Investing in just one company is potentially disastrous, unless you're lucky and you've chosen a company with consistently increasing profits, as one might expect from most 'blue chip' companies. For obvious reasons, new and experienced investors are advised to spread the risk around several companies, at least seven or eight, where losses from one or two will be evened out by profits derived from others in a well-balanced portfolio.
Basic Buying and Selling
Most buying and virtually all selling takes place through the Stock Exchange, meaning the individual must normally find someone to arrange transactions for him, such as a stockbroker or other recognised intermediary. There are several avenues for trading in shares, such as: your bank manager, investment adviser, building society manager, accountant, solicitor and, of course, the traditional stockbroker.
The first piece of documentation you are likely to receive after purchasing shares is a contract note or allotment letter which will come from the stockbroker or other person responsible for the transaction. At the end of the current Stock Market accounting period, you will receive a share certificate proving your ownership of shares.
You do not have any particular responsibilities as a shareholder although you are entitled to attend general meetings of the company of which you are a shareholder. If you want to, you can even attend the meeting to ask questions of company officials and directors. In practice, however, only about 5% of shareholders attend AGMs (Annual General Meetings). Shareholders are sent copies of the company's Annual Report and Accounts and other documents relating to things like company take-overs, mergers and rights issues. You will also most likely receive voting papers for whatever changes the company wishes to introduce.
Do's and Don'ts of Careful Investing
DO...
Consider your purchase as a long-term investment, unless you can afford to gamble.
Decide what you want from your investment, such as income, capital or both. Select your shares accordingly.
Spread your investment over several companies.
Choose companies in several different industries.
Choose and use a good investment newsletter.
DON'T...
Try to be too clever or impetuous until you really understand the Stock Market and know what you are doing.
Make hasty decisions.
Look for instant profits. Sometimes selling costs eat significantly into profits meaning gains can be obliterated.
Why Do Shares Fluctuate So Widely In Value?
Share prices are normally determined by the general state of the economy and the overall performance and profitability of the company itself. Even so, share prices fluctuate for other, sometimes unpredictable reasons, like political unrest, industrial disputes, and so on.
Like most things share prices are also subject to the law of demand and supply and by people's buying and selling habits. People panic, get caught up in the swing of outside events, and even over-react to things that do not largely concern them, such as strikes in industries they have no connection with, wars in other parts of the world, even the state of another country's economy.
All of these things and more can have a sudden and dramatic effect on share prices. The shrewd investor understands that prices can often stabilise as quickly as they rose or fell earlier and that, over time, highs and lows will average out.
A Stock Exchange bulletin advises new investors that the only way to guarantee making a small fortune in stocks and shares is to have a large fortune to start with. There's a reminder that share prices go down as well as up and, although it is rare for anyone to lose their entire capital on the Stock Market, such things do happen.
And yet stories regularly appear about almost instant riches appearing to people who place their trust in shares of some small or growing company which subsequently makes good. This is what you hope for as a shrewd investor but you must never, ever make it your solitary goal. Instead, aim for a steady growth in share value and a reliable, regular income into the bargain.
You And The Stock Market
For starters get a copy of 'An Introduction to the Stock Market' available from:
The Public Affairs Department, The Stock Exchange, London, EC2N 1HP.
The guide includes a list of stockbrokers willing to deal with smaller investors, with names, addresses and phone numbers included. I telephoned a handful of these firms and found them most helpful.
Before you sign up with a stockbroker, ask:
Are you a member of the Stock Exchange?
You are advised to look for someone who is a member of the Stock Exchange where a compensation fund is available for investors who lose money as a result of their brokers becoming insolvent, as happened in 1987 when the oldest established stockbroking firm in London went into bankruptcy.
Do you deal with private clients?
Even if the answer is 'yes', check carefully whether the firm deals direct with private clients or instead channels their investments into in-house unit trusts operated on behalf of several clients.
What personal contact do you have with clients?
Can clients phone for advice?
Can appointments be made at short notice?
Is there someone available to answer any questions you might have on a personal basis?
Will you be alerted to promising movements in the market or must you find these things out for yourself? Better and more competent brokers alert clients to potential gains. That's the way they increase their own earnings - and yours.
Spreading the Risk
A balanced portfolio is best, allowing the investor to survive dips in general Stock Market trends and meaning a sudden downturn in one or two investments has less impact than for someone who invests solely in the industries concerned. The astute investor spreads his risk over several shares in different industries. He'll usually have some alpha or 'blue chip' shares, as well as gilts, unit trusts and possibly some investment trusts. And he'll probably have some capital readily available in short-term accounts with banks and building societies.
'Blue chip' shares belong to large public companies and are generally considered safe investments. 'Unit trusts' are pooled investments in stocks and shares and are usually managed by professional investment managers. Again, though share values fall as well as rise in value, because they are spread over a wide area, unit trusts offer are a relatively safe form of investment. 'Gilts' are securities issued by the government with guaranteed interest and capital return. Another relatively safe haven for your capital. 'Investment trusts' are shares in a company which invests in shares from other companies. Though bearing close resemblance to unit trusts, investment trusts are considered a little more risky.
Do I Need A Stockbroker to Invest on the Stock Market?
Although a stockbroker will be involved somewhere in the investment process, you do not have to deal with one direct. Today, many banks, building societies, and some larger department stores, have share-dealing facilities for customers to walk in and handle their own transactions. The service is quick, reliable and quite inexpensive.
Penny Shares
Stories are plentiful about people investing in small and little-known companies with shares currently rated in pennies and later sold for many pounds apiece. Tales unfold of massive fortunes being made simply by an investor with faith enough to buy at a ludicrously low price and wait for companies involved to justify their worth, many of them becoming major companies whose shares are valued in pounds, not pennies.
The attraction of penny shares is too obvious to need explanation when there's the opportunity to see a well chosen share return astronomic profits. Yet, by their very nature, penny shares are infinitely more risky than shares in well-established 'blue chip' companies whose values tend to rise more often than fall.
Penny shares once encompassed anything valued at 10p or less, but since shares of such low value are quite rare, the term now applies to shares valued at up to 50p. Ambiguities still exist, with many monthly newsletters applying the term to anything priced at less than £1. The real beauty of penny shares lies in the fact that not all companies have an established track record to become a public company, a process which in itself is costly and sometimes risky, too.
The ultimately ill-fated Polly Peck company was once listed as a penny share company whose shares rocketed from 18p each to £36 in a short space of time. Many purchasers made fortunes when it came to sell their shares. Some lost out, of course, by sticking with Polly Peck shares to the time the company folded.
Penny shares an not just for new and up-and-coming firms and very often they are offered by once profitable companies now approaching bankruptcy. These are termed 'recovery' shares which by their nature are highly risky and might result in a resounding loss to the investor should the company fail to recover. But if the firm is suffering just a temporary setback, the investor might find his investment returning many thousands of times over. It's a risk you have to take. But a carefully calculated risk can yield spectacular gains. Careful study of individual companies' track records and future potential can repay high dividends.
Penny shares can be purchased by several different means, even via high street banks which have only recently jumped onto the bandwagon for low-cost, high-potential investments. Many publications and advisory services are there to help the penny investor, one I particularly recommend being 'How to Make a Killing from Penny Shares' by Michael Walters, published by Sidgwick and Jackson Ltd.
Among many other exciting topics the books reveals:
What makes penny shares so special.
What makes one a winner and the next a share to avoid.
How to spot a potential winner.
How to make quick profits.
Spreading risks.
How and when to buy and sell.
To cater for a rapidly growing band of penny share enthusiasts a number of specialist investment and financial publications have developed, including:
Penny Share Focus, available on subscription from:
Penny Share Focus, 11 Blomfield Street, London, EC2M 7AY
BOOK REVIEW
The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther, published by Souvenir Press
It's hard to name a book that has had such a profound impression on so many people as this one has. Certainly, many of the rules and regulations it contains pertaining to hugely successful Swiss bankers and investors are applicable to ordinary people, too.
The author was born in London of a British mother and a Swiss father and just before the Second World War the family moved to New York where the father became chairman of the New York branch of the Swiss Bank Corporation.
The book is really about Gunther's father and his own thoughts on investing and gambling. Throughout the book, the father is referred to as 'Frank Henry', and it seems Frank Henry was responsible for creating many fortunes, not forgetting his own. Frank Henry gave his son much valuable advice, including:
(On seeing his son's report card from school) "They don't teach you the thing you need most of all - Speculation. How to take risks and win. A boy growing up in America without knowing how to speculate - why, that's like being in a gold mine without a shovel!"
When his son joined the army and began thinking about future careers, Frank Henry advised: "Don't just think in terms of a salary. People never get rich on salaries, and a lot of people get poor on them. You've got to get something else going for you. A couple of good speculations, that's what you need."
There follows a preview of the axioms taught by father to son, and I earnestly hope you will search for a copy of the book via your library's 'search and find' procedure:
WORRY IS NOT A SICKNESS BUT A SIGN OF HEALTH. IF YOU ARE NOT WORRIED, YOU ARE NOT RISKING ENOUGH
Gunther says: "Most people grasp at security as though it were the most important thing in the world. Security does seem to have a lot going for it. It gives you that cosy immersed feeling, like being in a warm bed on a winter night. It engenders a sense of tranquility. .... Some Buddhist sects hold that one shouldn't strive for possessions and should even give away what one has. The theory is that the less you own, the less you will have to worry about.
The philosophy behind the Zurich Axioms is, of course, the exact opposite. Perhaps freedom from worry is nice in some ways. But any good Swiss speculator will tell you that if your main goal in life is to escape worry, you are going to stay poor." You have to take risks to win anything worthwhile - money-wise. Remember what Morrison said earlier about becoming rich and then losing everything, only to find another superbly profitable money-maker waiting just around the corner. Chances of making big money always depend on risks. As for buying a lottery ticket, for instance, where you risk £1 per try to win a fortune!
Risks are nothing to worry about, in fact, not taking risks is far more hazardous. Gunther explains: "But look at it this way. As an ordinary tax-hounded inflation-raddled income-earner, carrying much of the rest of the world on your back, you are in a pretty sorry financial state anyhow. What real difference is it going to make if you get a bit poorer by trying to get richer?"
ALWAYS TAKE YOUR PROFIT TOO SOON
Here Gunther talks about loyalty and the risk of holding out long enough to see a return on your investment, when all around it looks as if the time is right for your stock - or investment, business plan - to take a tumble.
Greed is the main factor in holding out too long and Gunther suggests one should always set a threshold at which point they will be happy with what they have gained from their investment. At this point they should get out while the going is good. He talks about a women who comes into a casino with a wad of money she was prepared to lose for fun:
"She goes to the roulette wheel and puts $10 on one number. I forget what it was, her lucky number or birthdate, or something. And what do you know? The number comes up, and she's richer by $350. So she takes $100 and puts it on another number, and that number comes up! She collects three and a half big ones this time. (Notice the resemblance to what happened to the couple in the film 'Indecent Proposal'? All her friends tell her to bet some more, this is her lucky night. She looks at them, and I can see her starting to get greedy.
Well, she goes on betting. She's had enough long shots, so she starts betting on the colors and the dozens - bets a few hundred each time and goes on winning. Six, seven wins in a row. She's really on a streak, this woman! Finally, she has something like $9,800. You'd think that would be enough, right? I'd have stopped long before. A couple of grand would have made me happy. But this woman isn't even happy with $9,800. She's dizzy with greed by now, see. She keeps saying she only needs another couple of hundred to make ten grand.
Reaching for that big round number, she began to lose. Her capital dwindled. She placed bigger bets at greater odds to recoup it. Finally she lost everyting, including her original $10."
WHEN THE SHIP STARTS TO SINK, DON'T PRAY, JUMP
Following on from taking profits quickly, Gunther advises that, even if you are late in claiming your profits, you must always grab what you can once the ship starts sinking. In the case of the casino lady, that might be just as the losing streak appears. In the case of a business that's hitting bad times, it's just as the rot sets in.
HUMAN BEHAVIOUR CANNOT BE PREDICTED. DISTRUST ANYONE WHO CLAIMS TO KNOW THE FUTURE, HOWEVER DIMLY
Gunther, and others like him, distrust anyone who claims to be able to predict the future, in whatever shape or form. Trust your own decisions, he says, not some astrologer or financial guru. Like most people, they are right sometimes, and more often wrong. Be master of your own destiny.
CHAOS IS NOT DANGEROUS UNTIL IT BEGINS TO LOOK ORDERLY
Gunther disbelieves strongly in trends and prediction charts, such as those speculators often use to predict rises and falls on the stock market. He tells the story of Irving Fisher, a professor of economics at Yale, who made a fortune on the stock market. People clammered round him for advice, hearing him say: "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" - just before Wall Street crashed in 1929. No-one predicted that, not even the experts.
AVOID PUTTING DOWN ROOTS. THEY IMPEDE MOTION
Be flexible and avoid putting all your eggs in one basket, look for a portfolio approach to business and, if necessary, be prepared to turn your back on certain deals and move on.
A HUNCH CAN BE TRUSTED IF IT CAN BE EXPLAINED
A hunch can sometimes be trusted, even if it goes against normal thinking. For example, experienced mail order dealers and direct mail specialists normally pack up shop during July and August, alleging people don't buy much by mail when it's hot outside and summer activities are calling.
Last year, I had a hunch they were wrong, and I continued trading right through the summer. Last was my most successful trading day ever! My hunch worked and I have reason to trust that hunch again this year. It's that word 'reason' that matters here, meaning if you can back a feeling that goes beyond normal thinking, you'd be well-advised to do what you think is right.
Gunther refers to hunches in many ways, including their 'discriminating use', of which he says:
"This is the Zurich approach. The thought behind it is that intuition can be useful. It seems a shame to scorn such a potentially valuable speciulative tool in a categorical way - to throw out all hunches just because some are silly. On the other hand, it is true that some hunches deserve to be tossed in the garbage can. The challenge is to discern which are worthy of your attention and which are not."
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT GOD'S PLAN FOR THE UNIVERSE INCLUDES MAKING YOU RICH
Throughout the Scriptures, God proposes giving away money and not to make it a religion. Gunther says: "If there is a God, a question on which the Axioms hold no opinion, there is no evidence that this supreme being gives a hoot whether you die rich or poor. The Bible says several times, in fact, that from the viewpoint of maintaining a healthy Christian or Jewish soul, you are probably better off poor." Gunther considers people who pray for money, alleging they are wasting their time. Rather, he says, turn to another person for advice. Yourself.
OPTIMISM MEANS EXPECTING THE BEST, BUT CONFIDENCE MEANS KNOWING HOW YOU WILL HANDLE THE WORST. NEVER MAKE A MOVE IF YOU ARE MERELY OPTIMISTIC
This is the most important axiom as I see it. Optimism is good, but total optimism is bad. When speculating you must be optimistic, but not to the point of risking your whole being on one venture. If things go wrong, as they can, the skilled risk-taker pays careful attention to how he will handle the problem. For some it's a question of knowing how soon or how late to pull out from a venture.
For others, it's a matter of reserving sufficient capital to keep on going after a deal goes wrong until the next resounding success comes along. From the book: "Never make a move if you are merely optimistic, says the Axiom. Seek confidence instead. Confidence comes not from expecting the best, but from knowing how you will handle the worst."
DISREGARD THE MAJORITY OPINION. IT IS PROBABLY WRONG
After all, the majority of people thought everything was going well on that fatal day in 1929, when Wall Street fell and thousands lost their entire fortunes. The majority can be - often are - wrong. Gunther says: "The many may be right, but the odds are they aren't.
Get out of the habit of assuming that any often-heard assertion is the truth. "High budget deficits will be the ruination of America", says nearly everybody. Is it true? Maybe; maybe not. Figure it out for yourself. Come to your own conclusion. "Interest rates and inflation will rise as the decade grows older." Oh yeah? Don't just swallow it. Examine it. Don't let the majority push you around."
IF IT DOESN'T PAY OFF THE FIRST TIME, FORGET IT
If a plan is going to work, it will show signs of success immediately. If a new venture looks like a hopeless cause from day one, that's what it will probably be. A good example is advertising, when advertising representatives will say your ad. needs to be seen for several weeks before people will respond to it. So, if no-one responds to it on first publication, it's entirely possible droves will repond to next week's ad. What a load of rubbish, it just doesn't work like that. The moral is: get out while the going is good.
LONG-RANGE PLANS ENGENDER THE DANGEROUS BELIEF THAT THE FUTURE IS UNDER CONTROL. IT IS IMPORTANT NEVER TO TAKE OUR OWN LONG-RANGE PLANS, OR OTHER PEOPLE'S, SERIOUSLY
The final axiom is all to do with being alert to changes and opportunities as they arise, even if they don't feature in your overall plan of things. Sticking too much to plan means missing opportunities.
You have to be like a grasshopper, Gunther tells us, and when opportunities arise you can quickly jump to them. This isn't to say long-term plans are not useful but you must always be prepared to amend them in the light of changing circumstances.
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